I may not be Nostradamus, but I have a couple of predictions for 2011...
1) Symbian OS, Microsoft Windows Mobile, HP Palm, and Blackberry will all try to regain market-share by releasing new version of their operating systems. They'll fail. The lead Apple and Android enjoy is too substantial.
2) Tablets will become the dominant personal computing platform towards the end of the year when the second generation tablets start hitting the market.
3) Security on mobile and tablet devices will become a real issue -- the limited bandwidth of mobile devices and the complete absence of security software on mobile devices makes mobile networks particularly vulnerable to a wide spectrum of security threats.
4) Accessories for tablets and mobile devices that foster "real" computing (e.g. keyboards and other similar input devices) are going to become an emerging market. Even better, why not have a slide-out keyboard on tablets, just like on mobile phones? (It makes sense, right?)
5) the really necessary and cutting-edge market will be for devices that allow people to interact with technology without a keyboard and mouse. (This is probably more like 2015-2018, but hey, as long as I've got my crystal ball out, why not look further?)
6) Microsoft will continue its trend of non-standard "standards", and in so-doing will seal the fate of their browser as a second-class internet access-device, like AOL, back in the day.
7) Net neutrality isn't going to happen -- the FCC, ICANN and every other regulatory body will capitulate to strong-arm of communism and capitalism.
8) Fox News (particularly Glenn Beck and Bill Orielly) will beat the "e-terrorism" drum and they will create a whole new vocabulary around "e-terrorism". To those of us who know about such things, this will be hillarity!
We'll see how I did in a year.
6 comments:
What about last year's predictions? What came to pass there?
RE #4, wouldn't that make the tablet heavier and too laptopy?
Merry Christmas Steeles!
actually, no... I didn't make any predictions in 2010; well, at least not formally.
One prediction I made was the rise of Android.
A big one I over-looked was the rise of kick-ass Android developer tools -- specifically, AppInventor. Its point-and-click stupid, easy.
No one, that I know of, saw the rise of wikileaks, or anything like it. As such, I think that was a big black-hole for about 99% of the world. The other 1%, were CIA, NSA, or DNI.
As for the market recovery, or lack there-of, again I would observe that there are very VERY few people who would have known about that -- the majority of which are affiliated with the Federal Reserve.
Other than that... I got nothing.
A couple of relevant URL's about my precictions coming true...
First, a note about prediction #1. I'm apparently not alone.
As for #8, it was only a matter of time. (Clipping from Foxnews.com)
re: the infoworld article, does this mean the death of flash/sun microsystems type usage?
re: the news capture...yup...they b wtchng
Here are a couple of tidbits related to prediction #3, and prediction #8... I'm off to a spectacular start on the year. At this pace, I'm going to have to make mid-year predictions just to have something to do the second-half of the year.
oh, and one more on prediction #7... almost forgot about that one! This one isn't so obvious. Another piece on prediction #7 related to the NBC Universal acquisition by Comcast... the FCC 'doggedly' gave their ruling "teeth" by saying Comcast had to allow content distributers equal access for *gasp* seven years... yes, and that's just dandy, until 2018. *sigh* stupid politicians.
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